Research on Reliability Growth for Synchronously Developed Multi-Systems
-
摘要: 提出了一种解决多台系统同步投试、同步停止试验和同步改进问题的新模型——指数模型.该模型充分考虑了增长过程中的各种可得信息,包括各改进阶段的失效数、未失效数和失效时间等数据.如果多台系统经过多次同步改进,并且单台系统的可靠性增长符合AMSAA模型,就可以合理地认为在每两个相邻的改进时刻之间,每台系统的失效时间服从指数分布.采用非参数方法得到多台系统在各同步停止试验时刻的可靠度,并利用最小二乘法拟合求得该模型中参数a和b的点估计值,以及参数b的置信限.通过在工程实例中对所提模型和几种已有模型计算结果的比较,说明了所提模型在解决多台系统同步可靠性增长问题中的合理性.
-
关键词:
- 可靠性增长 /
- AMSAA模型 /
- AMSAA-BISE模型 /
- 非齐次泊松过程 /
- 最小二乘法
Abstract: An advanced reliability growth model,exponential model,was presented to estimate the model parameters for multi-systems,which was synchronously tested,synchronously censored,and synchronously improved.In the presented method,the data during the reliability growth process were taken into consideration sufficiently,including the failure numbers,safety numbers and failure times at each censored time.If the multi-systems were synchronously improved many times,and the reliability growth of each system fitted AMSAA model,the failure time of each system could be considered rationally as an exponential distribution between two adjoining censored times.The nonparametric method was employed to obtain the reliability at each censored time of the synchronous multi-systems.The point estimations of the model parameters,a and b,were given by the least square method.The confidence interval for the parameter b was given as well.An engineering illustration was used to compare the result of the presented method with those of the available models.The result shows that the presented exponential growth model fits AMSAA-BISE model rather well,and two models are suitable to estimate the reliability growth for the synchronously developed multi-systems. -
[1] 周源泉,翁朝曦.可靠性评定[M].北京:科学出版社,1992,64—82. [2] 周源泉,翁朝曦.可靠性增长[M].北京:科学出版社,1990,198—217. [3] ZHOU Yuan-quan,WENG Zhao-xi.AMSAA-BISE model[A].In:MAO Shi-song,Sunada Y,Eds.3rd Japan-China Symp on Statistics[C].Tokyo,Japan: Soka Univ,1989,179—182. [4] 梅文华,郭月娥,杨义先.AMSAA-BISE模型不能成立[J].应用数学和力学,2001,22(7):758—762. [5] 梅文华,杨义先.对GJB/Z77多台同型产品增长模型的分析[J].航空学报,1999,20(1):65—68. [6] 曹玉.应用AMSAA-BISE模型提高采集站的可靠性[J].系统工程与电子技术,1993,(4):55—61. [7] 韩明.某型发动机无失效数据的Bayes可靠性分析[J].航空学报,1999,20(3):216—219. [8] HAN Ming.Bayesian estimation and hierarchical Bayesian estimation of zero-failure data[J].Chinese Quarterly Journal of Mathimatics,2001,16(1):65—70.
计量
- 文章访问数: 2360
- HTML全文浏览量: 160
- PDF下载量: 650
- 被引次数: 0