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寨卡病毒传播潜力与控制策略有效性分析

范琳烜 唐三一

范琳烜, 唐三一. 寨卡病毒传播潜力与控制策略有效性分析[J]. 应用数学和力学, 2017, 38(11): 1269-1278. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.380031
引用本文: 范琳烜, 唐三一. 寨卡病毒传播潜力与控制策略有效性分析[J]. 应用数学和力学, 2017, 38(11): 1269-1278. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.380031
FAN Lin-xuan, TANG San-yi. Analysis on Transmission Potential and Control Strategies of Zika Virus[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2017, 38(11): 1269-1278. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.380031
Citation: FAN Lin-xuan, TANG San-yi. Analysis on Transmission Potential and Control Strategies of Zika Virus[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2017, 38(11): 1269-1278. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.380031

寨卡病毒传播潜力与控制策略有效性分析

doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.380031
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(11471201;11631012)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    范琳烜(1992—),女,硕士(E-mail: linxuanfan1992@163.com);唐三一(1970—),男,教授(通讯作者. E-mail: sytang@snnu.edu.cn).

  • 中图分类号: O213

Analysis on Transmission Potential and Control Strategies of Zika Virus

Funds: The National Natural Science Foundation of China(11471201;11631012)
  • 摘要: 目前寨卡病毒已在超过65个国家和地区传播, 为了估计新加坡寨卡病毒的传播潜力和有关控制策略的有效性, 首先采用经典的传染病模型并结合累计报告病例数, 借助最小二乘法和MCMC方法进行模型参数估计, 寻求拟合累计病例数最佳的参数集合及其相应的置信区间.进而根据再生矩阵法求得的基本再生数公式,得到了新加坡寨卡爆发的阈值参数R0的估计值和置信区间, 通过对比分析验证了新加坡寨卡病毒传播基本再生数的可靠性.之后, 分析了累计病例数对各个关键参数的敏感性, 探讨针对寨卡病毒传播控制策略的有效性.结果表明: 在对新加坡寨卡病毒的控制中, 需要通过增加检疫次数和检疫率、对患者进行隔离以及有效地灭蚊, 并且通过减少疫区的游客数量达到控制疫情的效果.
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2017-02-09
  • 修回日期:  2017-02-20
  • 刊出日期:  2017-11-15

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