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基于存在基础病史易感者的SEIR模型对COVID-19传播的研究

翟羿江 蔺小林 李建全 梁卫平

翟羿江, 蔺小林, 李建全, 梁卫平. 基于存在基础病史易感者的SEIR模型对COVID-19传播的研究[J]. 应用数学和力学, 2021, 42(4): 413-421. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.410313
引用本文: 翟羿江, 蔺小林, 李建全, 梁卫平. 基于存在基础病史易感者的SEIR模型对COVID-19传播的研究[J]. 应用数学和力学, 2021, 42(4): 413-421. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.410313
ZHAI Yijiang, LIN Xiaolin, LI Jianquan, LIANG Weiping. Research on the Spread of COVID-19 Based on the SEIR Model for Susceptible Populations With Basic Medical History[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2021, 42(4): 413-421. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.410313
Citation: ZHAI Yijiang, LIN Xiaolin, LI Jianquan, LIANG Weiping. Research on the Spread of COVID-19 Based on the SEIR Model for Susceptible Populations With Basic Medical History[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2021, 42(4): 413-421. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.410313

基于存在基础病史易感者的SEIR模型对COVID-19传播的研究

doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.410313
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(11971281)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    翟羿江(1996—),男,硕士(E-mail: 1003474129@qq.com);蔺小林(1961—),男,博士(通讯作者. E-mail: 15929309233@126.com).

  • 中图分类号: O175

Research on the Spread of COVID-19 Based on the SEIR Model for Susceptible Populations With Basic Medical History

Funds: The National Natural Science Foundation of China(11971281)
  • 摘要: 该文基于经典的SEIR传染病模型建立了一类含有基础疾病历史人群的新冠肺炎传播模型,得到了其传播的基本再生数,确定了模型平衡点的存在性,并通过构造Lyapunov函数和利用LaSalle不变性原理论证了平衡点的全局稳定性,用数值模拟对所得理论研究结果进行了有效验证.同时,讨论了由无基础病向有基础病转化的速率系数对疾病传播的影响,发现不考虑基础病的数学模型会低估疾病传播的基本再生数和感染规模,数值模拟也显示了由无基础病向有基础病转化的速率系数对感染者人数峰值的影响.
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2020-10-16
  • 修回日期:  2020-11-27
  • 刊出日期:  2021-04-01

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