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具有媒体报道和有限医疗资源的传染病模型

刘单 王艳 任新志 刘贤宁

刘单,王艳,任新志,刘贤宁. 具有媒体报道和有限医疗资源的传染病模型 [J]. 应用数学和力学,2023,44(3):333-344 doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.430160
引用本文: 刘单,王艳,任新志,刘贤宁. 具有媒体报道和有限医疗资源的传染病模型 [J]. 应用数学和力学,2023,44(3):333-344 doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.430160
LIU Dan, WANG Yan, REN Xinzhi, LIU Xianning. An Infectious Disease Model With Media Coverage and Limited Medical Resources[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2023, 44(3): 333-344. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.430160
Citation: LIU Dan, WANG Yan, REN Xinzhi, LIU Xianning. An Infectious Disease Model With Media Coverage and Limited Medical Resources[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2023, 44(3): 333-344. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.430160

具有媒体报道和有限医疗资源的传染病模型

doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.430160
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(12071382;12101513;11901477);重庆市自然科学基金(博士后基金)(cstc2021jcyj-bshX0070));中国博士后科学基金(2021M702704)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    刘单(1996—),女,硕士生(E-mail:3194564533@qq.com)

    刘贤宁(1972—),男,博士(通讯作者. E-mail:liuxn@swu.edu.cn)

  • 中图分类号: O175.13

An Infectious Disease Model With Media Coverage and Limited Medical Resources

  • 摘要:

    该文建立和分析了一类具有媒体报道效应和有限医疗资源的传染病动力学模型,定义了疾病的基本再生数,分析了平衡点的存在性和稳定性,给出了系统发生前向分支、后向分支和Hopf分支的条件。通过数值模拟发现:提高媒体报道的信息覆盖率或医院对病人的最大容纳量,可以显著降低疾病流行的峰值或稳态时的感染人数;随着参数变化,系统不仅可能会产生后向分支或前向分支,还可能会出现鞍结点分支、Hopf 分支以及地方病平衡点稳定性随参数变化而变化等动力学行为。

  • 图  1  $ q = 0.03,\; 0.08,\; 0.2\; $时,模型(2)解的长期行为

    Figure  1.  For $ q = 0.03,\; 0.08,\; 0.2 $, the long-term behavior of the solution for model (2)

    图  2  $K = 20,\; 30,\; 50$时,模型(2)解的长期行为

    注 为了解释图中的颜色,读者可以参考本文的电子网页版本,后同。

    Figure  2.  For $ K = 20,\; 30,\; 50 $, the long-term behavior of the solution for model (2)

    图  3  $ \varLambda = 5 $或1时,模型(2)的非负平衡点随$ R_0 $变化的分支图:(a) $ \varLambda = 5 $; (b) $ \varLambda = 1 $

    Figure  3.  For $ \varLambda = 5 $ or 1 , the bifurcation of nonnegative equilibria for model (2) with respective to $ R_0 $: (a) $\varLambda = 5$; (b) $\varLambda = 1$

    图  4  模型(2)解的最终性态对初值的依赖性 (双稳定现象)

    Figure  4.  Dependence of the final behavior of the solution for model (2) on the initial value (bistable phenomenon)

    图  5  $R_{0}=1.3$时,模型(2)解的长期行为,其中$\varLambda=1,\; \mu=0.008,\; K=2,\; r=0.2,\; \gamma_1=0.06,\;\gamma_2=0.3$, $d_1=0.01,\;d_2=0.001,\; a=0.7,\; \tau=0.2,\; q=0.03$,初值为$(100,5,2,10)$

    Figure  5.  For $R_{0}=1.3$, the long-term behavior of the solution for model (2), where $\varLambda=1,\; \mu=0.008,\; K=2,\; r=0.2,\; \gamma_1=0.06,\;\gamma_2=0.3$, $d_1=0.01,\;d_2=0.001,\; a=0.7,\; \tau=0.2,\; q=0.03$, and the initial value is $(100,5,2,10)$

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2022-05-10
  • 修回日期:  2022-06-06
  • 网络出版日期:  2023-03-11
  • 刊出日期:  2023-03-15

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