住宅市场价格波动的异质有限预期模型

梁以德; 徐佳娜; 崔詠芯

doi:10.3879/j.issn.1000-0887.2009.10.010

住宅市场价格波动的异质有限预期模型

doi: 10.3879/j.issn.1000-0887.2009.10.010

香港城市大学房屋与建筑系,香港;

详细信息

作者简介:
梁以德,男,教授,博士(联系人.Tel:+852-2788-7600;Fax:+852-27889643,+852-27887612;E-mail:andrew.leung@cityu.edu.hk).

中图分类号: O29; O175.14
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2008-10-05
- 修回日期: 2009-08-26
- 刊出日期: 2009-10-15

Heterogeneous Boundedly Rational Expectation Model for Housing Market

Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, P. R. China;
Postdoctoral Centre, China Merchants Group Limited, 27/F, China Merchants Tower, Shun Tak Centre, 168-200 Connaught Rd. C., Hong Kong SAR, P. R. China

摘要

摘要: 研究目的在于分析异质有限预期条件下，住宅市场的价格波动．住宅市场被视为由具有异质、互竞预期的行为人所构成的演化系统．研究结果解释了住宅市场价格波动的一些典型现象，如均衡或震荡、收敛或偏离等．此外，研究显示市场结构的变动取决于行为人的策略选择．由于不同市场调节工具对价格波动的影响不同，市场监控政策应视特定市场、特定时期的具体情况而制定．
- 演化系统 /
- 房价波动 /
- 异质预期
Abstract: The housing price dynamics was tested when considering heterogeneous boundedly rational expectations, such as naive expectation, adaptive expectation and biased belief. Housing market was investigated as an evolutionary system with heterogeneous and competing expectations. The results show that the dynamics of the expected housing pricevaries substantially when heterogeneous expectations are considered together with some other endogenous factors. The simulation results explain some stylized phenomena, such as equilibrium or oscillation, convergence or divergence, and over-shooting or under-shooting. Furthermore, the results suggest that the variation of the proportion of each group of the agents is basically dependent on the selected strategies. It is indicated that control policies should be chosen carefully in consistence with a uniquereal estate market during a unique period since some certain parameters portfolio mayincrease or suppress the oscillation.
- evolutionary system /
- housing price dynamics /
- heterogeneous expectations

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参考文献(19)

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