2017, 38(11): 1269-1278.
doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.380031
Abstract:
Currently, Zika virus has spread in more than 65 countries and regions. To estimate the transmission potential of Zika virus and evaluate the effectiveness of the control strategies in Singapore, the classical infectious disease model was employed, and both the least square method and the MCMC method were used to estimate the unknown parameters which can fit the cumulative number of reported cases very well. With the nextgeneration matrix method the basic reproduction number was calculated and its value and confidence interval were evaluated according to the estimated parameter values, which can be verified through comparison between the results obtained from 2 different estimation methods. Furthermore, the effectiveness of different control measures was discussed in more details through sensitivity analyses, which can help verify the key parameters related to the cumulative number of cases and the Zika outbreak. The results show that, for the control of Zika virus in Singapore, the number of screening and the screening rate shall be increased, the quarantine and isolation of infected patients and the mosquito control shall be effectively implemented, and the number of tourists shall be reduced.