LIN Yong-xin, CHEN Yu-shu, CAO Qing-jie. Nonlinear and Chaotic Analysis of a Financial Complex System[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2010, 31(10): 1239-1248. doi: 10.3879/j.issn.1000-0887.2010.10.011
Citation: LIN Yong-xin, CHEN Yu-shu, CAO Qing-jie. Nonlinear and Chaotic Analysis of a Financial Complex System[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2010, 31(10): 1239-1248. doi: 10.3879/j.issn.1000-0887.2010.10.011

Nonlinear and Chaotic Analysis of a Financial Complex System

doi: 10.3879/j.issn.1000-0887.2010.10.011
  • Received Date: 1900-01-01
  • Rev Recd Date: 2010-09-03
  • Publish Date: 2010-10-15
  • A determination on the characteristics of futures market of commodity of China was presented by the method of the phase-randomized surrogate data.There was a significant difference in critical values obtained when this method was used in random timeseries and nonlinear chaotic timeseries.The technology of the singular value decomposition was used to reduce noise of chaotic timeseries and then the phase space of chaotic timeseries was decomposed to range space and null noise space, and the original chaotic timeseries in range space was restructured.The method of strong disturbance on the basis of the improved general constrained randomized method was further adopted to re-deternine.According to the calculated result an analysis on the trend of futures's market of commodity is made.The results indicate that the Chinese futures's market of commodity is a complicated nonlinear system with obvious nonlinear chaotic characteristic.
  • loading
  • [1]
    Abarbanel Henry D I, Brown R, Kadtke J B. Prediction in chaotic nonlinear systems: methods for time series with broadband fourier spectra [J]. Phys Rev A, 1990, 41(4):1782-1807. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevA.41.1782
    [2]
    Engle R F. Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticy with estimates of the variance of UK inflationl[J]. Econometrica, 1982, 50(4): 987-1008. doi: 10.2307/1912773
    [3]
    Bollerslev T. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity[J]. Journal of conometrics, 1986, 31(3): 307-327.
    [4]
    Tong H. Non-Linear Time Series: A Dynamical Systems Approach[M]. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1990.
    [5]
    Tjvstheim D. Non-linear time series: a selective review[J]. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 1994, 21(2): 97-130.
    [6]
    Yao Q, Tong H. On initial-condition sensitivity and prediction in nonlinear stochastic systems[J]. Bull Int Statist Inst, 1995, 50(4): 395-412.
    [7]
    Yao Q, Tong H. On prediction and chaos in stochastic systems[C]Tong H. Chaos and Forecastinged. Singapore: World Scientific, 1994, 348(1688): 357-369.
    [8]
    Masry E, Fan J. Local polynomial estimation for stationary stable processes[J]. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 1997, 24(2): 165-179. doi: 10.1111/1467-9469.00056
    [9]
    Gourieroux C. ARCH Models and Financial Applications[M]. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1997.
    [10]
    Cabrera J L, Jzvier F. Numerical analysis of transient behavior in the discrete random Logistic equation with delay[J]. Phys Lett A, 1995, 197(1): 19-24. doi: 10.1016/0375-9601(94)00951-K
    [11]
    Grassberger Peter. Fininte sample corrections to entropy and dimension estimates[J]. Phys Lett A, 1988, 128(6/7): 369-373. doi: 10.1016/0375-9601(88)90193-4
    [12]
    马军海,陈予恕,刘曾荣. 不同随机分布的相位随机化对实测数据影响的分析研究[J]. 应用数学和力学,1998, 19(11): 955-964.
    [13]
    Rapp P E, Albano A M. Phase-randomized surrogates can produce spurious identificztions of non-random structure[J]. Phys Lett A, 1994, 192(1): 27-33. doi: 10.1016/0375-9601(94)91010-3
    [14]
    陈国华,陈春旺,盛昭瀚,马军海. 经济时序动力系统最佳嵌入维数的选取及应用研究[J]. 天津大学学报(自然科学与工程技术版), 2001, 34(2):158-162.
    [15]
    Albano A M, Muench J M, Schwartz C. Singular value decomposition and the Grassberger Procaccia algorithm[J].Phys Rev A, 1988, 38(6): 3017-3026. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevA.38.3017
    [16]
    马军海,陈予恕. 低维混沌时序非线性动力系统的预测方法及其应用研究[J]. 应用数学和力学,2001, 22(5): 441-448.
    [17]
    Casdagli Martin, Eubank Stephen, Farmer J Doyne, Gibson J. State space reconstruction in the presence of noise[J]. Phys Ser D, 1991, 51(10): 52-98.
    [18]
    Scjreiber T. Constrained randomization of time series data[J]. Physical Review Letters, 1998, 80(10): 2105-2108. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.80.2105
  • 加载中

Catalog

    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

    1. 本站搜索
    2. 百度学术搜索
    3. 万方数据库搜索
    4. CNKI搜索

    Article Metrics

    Article views (1627) PDF downloads(955) Cited by()
    Proportional views
    Related

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return