Gu Shenshi, Wang Zhiqian, Cheng Jitai. The Fractal Research and Predicating on the Time Series of Sunspot Relative Number[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 1999, 20(1): 79-84.
Citation:
Gu Shenshi, Wang Zhiqian, Cheng Jitai. The Fractal Research and Predicating on the Time Series of Sunspot Relative Number[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 1999, 20(1): 79-84.
Gu Shenshi, Wang Zhiqian, Cheng Jitai. The Fractal Research and Predicating on the Time Series of Sunspot Relative Number[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 1999, 20(1): 79-84.
Citation:
Gu Shenshi, Wang Zhiqian, Cheng Jitai. The Fractal Research and Predicating on the Time Series of Sunspot Relative Number[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 1999, 20(1): 79-84.
In this paper, with the theory of nonlinear dynamic systems, It is analyzed that the dynamic behavior and the predictability for the monthly mean variations of the sunspot relative number recorded from January 1891 to December 1996. In the progress, the fractal dimension (D=3.3±0.2) for the variation process was computed. This helped us to determine the embedded dimension [2×D＋1]=7. By computing the Lyapunov index (λ1=0.863), it was indicated that the variation process is a chaotic system. The Kolmogorov entropy (K=0.0260) was also computed, which provides, theoretically, the predicable time scale. And at the end, according to the result of the analysis above, an experimental predication is maded, whose date was a part cut from the sample date.
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